Trump's tariff formula
The Three Little Pigs, the Boy Who Cried Wolf, and the Day of Liberation
When I began working on this infographic about the formula used by Trump’s advisors to calculate “reciprocal tariffs” on trading partners, I couldn’t decide whether to draw inspiration from The Three Little Pigs or The Boy Who Cried Wolf.
In the end, I realized that both stories fit the narrative perfectly.
The Three Little Pigs—because each country builds its trade relationship with the U.S. using different "materials": some strong and resilient (like steel), others fragile and unstable (like straw). And when the Big Bad Tariff comes huffing and puffing, we find out which ones can withstand the blow.
The Boy Who Cried Wolf—because threats of trade wars and tariff hikes were repeated so many times that U.S. partners grew skeptical. Until one day, the tariffs actually arrived. That was the day Trump called “Liberation Day.”
This infographic unpacks the formula behind these tariffs and the logic used to justify them. But the real story goes beyond abstract equations—it’s also about what literally holds up your home.
According to the National Association of Home Builders, around 7% of all materials used in new residential construction in the U.S. are imported. These include everything from structural steel and aluminum to fixtures, finishes, and fasteners—essentials that shape the cost and quality of housing.
A closer look at trade data reveals that China alone accounts for 27% of these imports, followed by Mexico with 11%, Canada with 8%, and a number of Asian partners—Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, India, South Korea, and Thailand—each contributing between 3% and 5%. European suppliers like Germany also play a notable role. Collectively, all other countries account for another 27%.
Finally, the next time someone says tariffs only affect foreign trade partners, remember this: they also shape what your house is made of—brick, straw, or steel.