Vibe acquiring <> vibe coding

OpenAI is set to acquire Windsurf for $3B.

Did Anysphere (Cursor) price itself out of an acquisition?

OpenAI’s acquisition of Windsurf would be the first major exit in the coding AI agents & copilots market since Microsoft’s acquisition of GitHub (not that we had any idea what a coding agent or copilot when GitHub was in 2018).

The coding AI agents & copilots market is one of the fastest growing AI markets, with total equity funding reaching nearly $1.9 billion (33 deals) in the last year alone. Based on CB Insights’ data, Windsurf is a clear acquisition target, with the top Mosaic score (overall company health and trajectory metric) in the coding AI agents & copilots market – 932 (out of 1000), +213pts in the last year.

But… would OpenAI have considered acquiring other leading startups had they not priced themselves out with a recent mega round?

While Anysphere lags Windsurf slightly on Mosaic at 874, they have seen the largest increase of any company in the market, +218pts, over the last year. In December, Anysphere raised at a $2.6B valuation and rumors are circulating that they are looking to raise at a $10B valuation.

Did their aggressive fundraising price them out of being acquisition targets for OpenAI? How much harder will it be for them to live up to their valuation if the Windsurf deal goes through?