PoliticsAug 16, 2024
Polling Error in the Past Five U.S. Presidential Elections 🗳️
What We’re Showing
This graphic compares polling averages to the popular vote in the past five U.S. presidential elections. Polling averages were sourced from RealClear Polling.
Key Takeaway
- Based on this sample of five elections, polls were the most accurate at estimating the popular vote in 2004 and 2008 (polling error of 0.9 and 0.3 respectively)
- On the other hand, polling error was largest in the 2012 and 2020 elections, and surprisingly higher than in 2016
Dataset
Year | 2004 | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll Average | (R) Bush | 48.9% | (D) Obama | 52.1% | (D) Obama |
(D) Kerry | 47.4% | (R) McCain | 44.5% | (R) Romney | |
Poll Margin | Bush 1.5 | Obama 7.6 | Obama 0.7 | Clinton 3.2 | Biden 7.2 |
Share of Popular Vote | (R) Bush | 50.7% | (D) Obama | 52.9% | (D) Obama |
(D) Kerry | 48.3% | (R) McCain | 45.6% | (R) Romney | |
Election Margin | Bush 2.4 | Obama 7.3 | Obama 3.9 | Clinton 2.1 | Biden 4.5 |
Polling Error | 0.9 | 0.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 2.7 |
Data sources
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2004/bush-vs-kerryhttps://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2008/mccain-vs-obamahttps://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2012/obama-vs-romneyhttps://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2016/trump-vs-clintonhttps://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden
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