Oct 5, 2023
What's Next for the U.S. Economy?
This graphic provides insight into the possibility of a future U.S. recession.
While Federal Reserve officials do not believe a recessions is in store over the next 12 months, 48% of economists, 69% of consumers, and 84% of CEOs appear to disagree.
Dataset
Group | Metric | Probability of Recession in Next 12 Months |
---|---|---|
Wall Street | Federal Reserve officials | 0% |
Wall Street | Yield curve | 66% |
Wall Street | Economists | 50% |
Main Street | Consumers | 69% |
C-Suite | Goldman Sachs | 20% |
C-Suite | Bank of America | 35-40% |
C-Suite | CEOs | 83% |
Data sources
CEO probability based on Conference Board CEO survey conducted on August 3, 2023.
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