WTO: Chinese Exports to U.S. Expected to Drop by 77%

Chinese exports to the United States are expected to fall by 77 percent in 2025, according to World Trade Organization forecasts. Meanwhile, Chinese imports are expected to increase to every other market, with the rest of North America predicted to see growth of 25 percent. South America is expected to see a nine percent increase in Chinese imports this year, while all other markets are projected to see import increases of between four to six percent.

The second bar chart shows how countries and regions are expected to change their exports to the United States in 2025. After China, the biggest decreases in merchandise exports to the U.S are expected to be from Europe (-8 p.p.) and the rest of North America (-7 p.p.), followed by South America (-4 p.p.) and the Middle East (-2 p.p.). The CIS region is projected to raise exports, which the WTO says is principally related to exemptions for natural resources. The group of Least Developed Countries (LDCs) as well as Asia (excluding China) are forecast to increase their exports to the U.S., likely filling some of the vacuum left from the sudden drop in exports from China to the U.S. due to China’s higher tariffs. This indicates that the reduced presence of China in the U.S. will generate additional export opportunities for other economies.