The GDP Impact of Trump's 10% Tariffs on China 🔻

What We’re Showing

The expected impact to the real GDP of the U.S. and China with Trump's 10% import tariffs recently imposed on China.

The dotted line also shows the projected GDP impact in a scenario with retaliatory tariffs put in place by China.

Data is from Warwick McKibbin, Megan Hogan, and Marcus Noland's paper, The international economic implications of a second Trump presidency, produced for the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

The State of Announced Tariffs

• While Trump initially said he would impose a 60% tariff on China, he has imposed a smaller 10% tariff on all Chinese imports currently.
• China has retaliated with 10-15% tariffs on U.S. energy products and machinery, expected to come into effect February 10, 2025.
• Trump intends to impose tariffs on China until it stops exporting fentanyl, given its role as the leading manufacturer of fentanyl precursors globally.

How Tariffs Could Impact Growth and Inflation

• Tariffs are forecasted to impact China's GDP growth more negatively than the U.S.' over the short and long term.
• A scenario with retaliatory tariffs from China is projected to push U.S. inflation up by 0.12 percentage points in 2025.