IMF: Russia's Economic Growth Expected to Slow

According to estimates by the International Monetary Fund, Russia’s GDP shrank by 1.2 percent in 2022, following its invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent Western sanctions on its energy, finance and tech sectors. However, GDP growth rebounded in 2023 and 2024, by 3.6 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively, far outpacing that of many Western countries those years.

This growth was largely fuelled by increased levels of government spending, particularly in the military sector. According to Reuters analysts, this led to "soaring wages in a tight labour market and strong consumer demand even with interest rates at 18 percent". Another important factor was Russia’s redirecting of many of its oil and gas exports to countries such as India and China, circumventing the worst impacts of the sanctions.

However, Russian growth is expected to slow significantly in 2025 and 2026. According to IMF projections, the country's GDP is forecast to grow by only 1.4 percent this year and 1.2 percent next year. Observers cite issues such as labor shortages, rising prices and the ongoing impact of sanctions on foreign trade, for example, in the tech sector, as challenges up ahead for Russia.