Japan’s birth rate dropped sharply in 1966, influenced by cultural beliefs

Demographic trends, such as births and deaths, can be influenced by many factors. Wars or pandemics can lead to higher death rates, while lower child mortality and access to contraceptionreduce the number of births.

But specific cultural beliefs can also have a strong effect, as in Japan in 1966. As you can see in the chart, the UN estimates that births decreased by about 20% from 1965 to 1966.

The reason behind this drop is unusual. Children born in 1966 had the “fire horse” as their birth sign. According to astrological predictions, women born that year would bring bad fortune, especially for their future husbands.

Families who either believed this, or wanted to avoid the risk of their daughters having difficulty in the marriage market, chose not to have children that year. Couples may have abstained or used contraception, and in addition, the induced abortion rate in 1966 was significantly higher than in the surrounding years.

The next year of the fire horse is 2026. With the decline of these beliefs in Japan, fewer arranged marriages (where the birth sign might be a significant factor), and generally declining birth rates, we are unlikely to see this sharp drop in births again.