👀 Most of North America is Below the Population Replacement Rate

Key Takeaways

• The U.S., Canada and Mexico are all below the population replacement fertility rate.
• Persistently low fertility rates below the key 2.1 threshold can result in population declines.
• Data for this graphic is from the UN World Population Prospects’ 2025 estimates.

📝 The Lowdown on Fertility Rates

The fertility rate measures the average number of children a woman in a specific area will have over the course of her lifetime.

That 2.1 number is a key threshold. At this level, the area’s population remains self-sustaining (at current mortality rates, without migration).

🤨 But the U.S., Canada, and Mexico are Still Growing

There are two key reasons:

• Population decline usually occurs after 30 years of below-replacement fertility rates. The U.S. fertility rate has only consistently stayed below 2.1 since the mid 2000s.
• Immigration into the region can sustain population growth.